IFP @fiiiiiist on why lifting export controls wouldn't stop China from spending a full CHIPS Act worth of money every year to reduce US chip dependency:
"I don't buy this argument. The most important reason is that China is very distrustful of the US. We have already shown we're willing to use export controls on compute to slow their ability to develop frontier AI systems."
"If we stopped doing that tomorrow, it is very unlikely they'd say, everything's fine. Let's pause our own investments into our semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem."
"Like every other industry before, they are instead going to be like, yes, great, let's continue spending roughly a CHIPS Act worth of money, 50 billion-ish every single year on revitalizing this, because we know we have this strategic vulnerability in what might be the world's most important technology."
"That possibility may have existed several years ago, but definitely doesn't now. China is aggressively chasing semiconductor dependency."
@IFP
